|
 Engr. Randy Pastolero delivered the expository presentation in support of
PECO's petition. Essentially, their petition is
to amend the electric power purchase agreement (EPPA) that they signed with Panay
Power Corporation (PPC) back in 1997 which has a duration of 25 years
(until 2023). The amendment consists of (1) shift in power source and
(2) change in projected power requirement for Iloilo City.
The existing PPA approved by ERC in 1997 identifies the generating
sources where PECO will source out its electric power for distribution to
consumers. These sources are: (1) PPC, 72 MW, and (2) NAPOCOR, 15 MW.
In July 2010 PECO turned to Green Core
Geothermal Inc. (GCGI) when NAPOCOR stopped generating after it was privatized.
The
contract with GCGI is only for 10 MW up to December 2010. Thus, the total
generating capacity contracted by PECO today is 82 MW.
PECO now petitions ERC for approval to contract 65 MW of its power
requirement from the coal-fired power plant owned by the Panay
Energy Development Corporation (PEDC) and to reduce the power it gets
from PPC. In its petition, PECO is silent on the amount of generating
capacity it will continue to source from PPC, although Engr. Pastolero mentions it
here as 15 MW. If 15 MW is to be sourced from PPC, this brings the total generating capacity to be
contracted to only 80 MW. It is safe to surmise that PECO plans to
increase PPC load in the future since it did not put a cap on the amount
to be sourced from it. As the city's demand for electric power increase,
PECO will increasingly source power from PPC, a diesel plant hence more
expensive, since PEDC load has a cap
of 65 MW. Iloilo city consumers will experience a steadily rising cost
of electricity for 25 years, unless the EPPA is sooner amended.
PECO projects that Iloilo City will have the following electric power
requirement:
TABLE 1. PECO's Five-Year Electric Power Demand Projection for Iloilo
City (2010-2014)
|
ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND PROJECTION (MW) |
|
YEAR |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
|
AVERAGE DEMAND |
78.3 |
82.2 |
88.0 |
92.4 |
97.0 |
However, the above forecast appears to conflict with actual PECO
records for 2005-2009 presented in Table 2 below:
TABLE 2. Five-Year Historical Electric Power Demand for Iloilo City
(2005-2009)
|
Month |
Number |
Electric Power Purchased (MW) |
Electric Power Sold (MW) |
|
of Days |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
|
January |
31 |
40.28 |
43.30 |
41.38 |
45.90 |
38.16 |
36.08 |
37.06 |
35.76 |
36.92 |
34.04 |
|
February |
28 |
42.56 |
43.26 |
42.77 |
42.86 |
41.73 |
37.04 |
38.00 |
37.60 |
38.38 |
36.41 |
|
March |
31 |
41.99 |
44.95 |
44.90 |
46.40 |
44.23 |
36.25 |
38.15 |
38.05 |
36.94 |
38.89 |
|
April |
30 |
45.58 |
45.46 |
45.31 |
48.78 |
43.78 |
40.11 |
38.94 |
39.24 |
40.63 |
39.06 |
|
May |
31 |
48.02 |
44.20 |
48.65 |
47.82 |
44.08 |
41.93 |
38.20 |
41.89 |
38.72 |
39.84 |
|
June |
30 |
46.10 |
45.50 |
48.82 |
43.15 |
43.82 |
40.21 |
39.80 |
42.46 |
36.64 |
39.27 |
|
July |
31 |
45.45 |
43.63 |
46.35 |
47.63 |
44.84 |
40.13 |
37.43 |
39.66 |
38.38 |
39.23 |
|
August |
31 |
43.94 |
41.60 |
46.07 |
48.55 |
43.37 |
37.86 |
35.68 |
40.57 |
39.10 |
38.81 |
|
September |
30 |
44.43 |
43.54 |
43.88 |
47.20 |
44.30 |
38.88 |
37.90 |
38.75 |
38.83 |
39.67 |
|
October |
31 |
45.68 |
42.24 |
44.04 |
47.53 |
44.34 |
39.09 |
37.17 |
37.57 |
38.60 |
39.60 |
|
November |
30 |
45.29 |
44.40 |
42.46 |
47.13 |
44.33 |
38.74 |
38.12 |
37.88 |
39.04 |
39.67 |
|
December |
31 |
44.85 |
44.42 |
42.68 |
43.99 |
42.01 |
40.18 |
39.35 |
37.40 |
36.55 |
37.06 |
|
ANNUAL AVERAGE = |
44.51 |
43.87 |
44.78 |
46.41 |
43.25 |
38.88 |
37.98 |
38.90 |
38.23 |
38.46 |
There are two sets of data in this table: electric power purchased
and electric power sold. The electric power purchased
is the quantity of electricity bought by PECO in megawatts
(MW). The electric power sold is the quantity of electricity actually
paid for by electric power consumers to PECO. The difference in these
quantities represents system loss, which could be due to (1)
technical loss and (2) pilferage loss. Loss due to transmission is
technical loss. Pilferage loss is due to illegal connections.
To put things in perspective, the annual average electric power
purchased [actually, not purchased but supplied by PPC and NAPOCOR since 72 MW
and 15 MW, respectively, are the electric power purchased regardless of actual demand] shown above,
i.e., 44.51, 43.87, 44.78, 46.41 and 43.25 are means for the year; that
is, half of the time power supplied is higher and half of the
time lower than these mean quantities. PECO and other distribution
companies compute the most economical
baseline electric power quantity that they should keep online on a constant basis.
Hypothetically, when demand exceeds this baseline level, PECO brings
online additional power to meet the demand from the same or another
source. Thus, by necessity, generating power capacity required for
uninterrupted supply of electricity should be higher than the mean values
shown. The question is, how much higher?
Slide No. 9 of Engr. Pastolero's presentation is a graph showing the
typical load pattern during a 24-hour period from Monday to Sunday in
May 2010. Load is shown in MWh. The
graph shows that Iloilo City load peaks on Monday 3 PM at 81,973 MWh.
Dividing this quantity by 31 days x 24 hours (number of hours during the
month of May) gives approx. 110 MW. On the other hand, load is
lowest on Sunday 7 AM at only 34,248 MWh (46 MW). The average load during this week of May 2010 is 56,674 MWh or 76.2 MW. The same data in
Slide No. 9 of Engr. Pastolero's presentation is given in Table 3 below,
this time in MW.
TABLE 3. Electric Power Demand for Iloilo City During a 24-Hour
Period from Monday to Sunday in May 2010 (MW)
|
Wk |
Hour of the Day |
AVERAGE |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
|
Mon |
60 |
58 |
55 |
53 |
51 |
51 |
51 |
59 |
78 |
92 |
101 |
103 |
102 |
108 |
110 |
104 |
97 |
86 |
93 |
86 |
80 |
79 |
72 |
67 |
79.0 |
|
Tue |
62 |
59 |
56 |
54 |
52 |
52 |
52 |
58 |
76 |
90 |
102 |
103 |
102 |
108 |
104 |
103 |
98 |
88 |
91 |
89 |
80 |
77 |
72 |
67 |
| 
